Race 5A

emma-2023

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Seamus Hendrickson 14.0% 15.4% 13.1% 12.3% 11.8% 10.1% 7.8% 6.3% 4.3% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Arden Carleton 17.8% 15.8% 14.8% 11.2% 11.9% 8.6% 7.4% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jenna Kozal 6.0% 6.2% 7.1% 7.5% 7.5% 8.4% 9.1% 10.5% 11.0% 10.8% 8.6% 5.5% 1.7%
Iain McSweeney 5.9% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 9.0% 11.2% 12.4% 9.2% 6.2% 2.1%
Mason Shaw 11.0% 11.5% 10.2% 12.2% 11.2% 10.0% 9.6% 8.3% 6.6% 5.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Andrew Michels 13.3% 12.6% 12.2% 12.2% 11.1% 9.7% 8.4% 7.8% 5.9% 3.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Joseph Mowrey 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 4.2% 5.3% 6.9% 7.7% 7.8% 11.1% 12.1% 14.5% 13.1% 6.4%
Domenico Sacchetti 9.1% 8.1% 9.9% 8.3% 9.3% 10.6% 11.6% 9.2% 9.3% 6.7% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4%
Jack Miller 9.2% 9.9% 9.2% 11.0% 9.7% 10.6% 10.2% 10.2% 8.5% 6.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.3%
Keegan Aerts 0.9% 1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.9% 3.8% 3.9% 6.7% 10.8% 21.8% 40.5%
Carly Irwin 2.6% 2.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% 5.1% 5.4% 7.0% 9.3% 12.4% 16.9% 17.2% 10.2%
Kent Colbrunn 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 5.3% 6.7% 11.7% 23.1% 36.0%
Juhi Desai 5.7% 4.9% 6.0% 6.3% 6.8% 7.7% 9.4% 10.5% 10.8% 11.7% 11.8% 6.7% 1.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.