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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+8.01vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.86+7.22vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College1.09+4.99vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.87+3.35vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64+5.21vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.07+2.41vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.80+2.68vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.73+1.42vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.01-0.64vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.94-1.64vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.13+2.11vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California1.40-6.39vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.14-5.54vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College0.85-5.42vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.68-5.11vs Predicted
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16Fordham University0.71-4.97vs Predicted
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17George Washington University0.70-7.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.006.0%1st Place
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9.22St. Mary's College of Maryland0.865.1%1st Place
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7.99Connecticut College1.096.8%1st Place
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7.35University of Vermont0.878.4%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.643.8%1st Place
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8.41Northeastern University1.075.9%1st Place
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9.68Tufts University0.804.4%1st Place
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9.42Christopher Newport University0.735.2%1st Place
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8.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.016.5%1st Place
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8.36Cornell University0.946.8%1st Place
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13.11SUNY Maritime College-0.131.7%1st Place
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5.61University of Southern California1.4013.6%1st Place
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7.46Boston University1.147.5%1st Place
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8.58Eckerd College0.855.5%1st Place
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9.89Northwestern University0.684.5%1st Place
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11.03Fordham University0.713.4%1st Place
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9.3George Washington University0.705.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Duncan Craine | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Calvin Marsh | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Blake Vogel | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% |
| Tomas Riccio | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Marcus Greco | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Luke Barker | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 33.5% |
| Luke Harris | 13.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.8% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.