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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+6.19vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.10+6.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+5.26vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire1.81+7.87vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University3.31+2.10vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.15+1.98vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-4.05vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College4.05-3.37vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College4.06-4.16vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.29-2.79vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.37-3.86vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.71-6.16vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.02-4.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53-7.41vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut2.36-4.59vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-1.57vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-1.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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8.88Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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12.87University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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8.1Salve Regina University3.310.1%1st Place
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8.98Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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3.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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5.63Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.84Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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8.21Tufts University3.290.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
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6.84Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.39Brown University3.020.0%1st Place
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7.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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11.41University of Connecticut2.360.0%1st Place
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15.43Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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16.29Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Oviatt | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Krysta Rohde | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Neal Drake | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 31.3% | 16.7% | 3.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Ingham | 20.2% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.7% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Catherine Swanson | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Pete Hazelett | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Claflin | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Simeone | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.2% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 11.4% | 44.4% | 29.0% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 21.8% | 66.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.