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📊 Prediction Accuracy
88.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.85vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.58+1.73vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.44+0.87vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.84+0.95vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.72+0.20vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.56-0.49vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan-0.01-0.33vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.31-1.89vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1629.1%1st Place
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3.73University of Pennsylvania1.5817.1%1st Place
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3.87Cornell University1.4415.0%1st Place
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4.95Princeton University0.849.1%1st Place
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5.2SUNY Maritime College0.729.2%1st Place
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5.51University of Vermont0.567.0%1st Place
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6.67University of Michigan-0.013.4%1st Place
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6.11University of Wisconsin0.315.0%1st Place
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6.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 29.1% | 21.9% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 17.1% | 17.3% | 16.0% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 15.0% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Asher Green | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 6.5% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 11.6% |
| Samuel Stephens | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 18.3% | 30.3% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| Max Case | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 19.0% | 18.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.