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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.91vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.58+1.69vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.72+2.26vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.44-0.14vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.84-0.05vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.56-0.48vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan-0.01-0.37vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.31-1.88vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1627.3%1st Place
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3.69University of Pennsylvania1.5817.6%1st Place
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5.26SUNY Maritime College0.728.2%1st Place
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3.86Cornell University1.4416.2%1st Place
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4.95Princeton University0.849.4%1st Place
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5.52University of Vermont0.566.6%1st Place
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6.63University of Michigan-0.013.6%1st Place
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6.12University of Wisconsin0.315.8%1st Place
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6.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 27.3% | 23.1% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 17.6% | 17.5% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 9.8% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 16.2% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Asher Green | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 6.6% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 11.6% |
| Samuel Stephens | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 29.9% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 17.2% | 20.3% |
| Max Case | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 16.4% | 18.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.