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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.91vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.58+1.68vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.44+0.79vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.72+1.34vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.84-0.09vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.56-0.48vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin0.31-0.83vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.04vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.01-2.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1627.5%1st Place
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3.68University of Pennsylvania1.5818.9%1st Place
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3.79Cornell University1.4415.6%1st Place
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5.34SUNY Maritime College0.727.2%1st Place
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4.91Princeton University0.849.4%1st Place
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5.52University of Vermont0.567.0%1st Place
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6.17University of Wisconsin0.314.5%1st Place
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5.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.7%1st Place
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6.71University of Michigan-0.014.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 27.5% | 22.8% | 16.3% | 14.4% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Cole Woodworth | 18.9% | 16.1% | 15.8% | 15.6% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 15.6% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 9.2% |
| Asher Green | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 6.5% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 7.0% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 11.6% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 16.7% | 21.6% |
| Max Case | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 19.0% | 31.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.