← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College4.06+4.46vs Predicted
-
2University of Vermont3.37+5.81vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+0.92vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University2.76+5.99vs Predicted
-
5University of Connecticut2.36+6.19vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+1.46vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+1.20vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58-0.99vs Predicted
-
9Salve Regina University3.31-0.69vs Predicted
-
10Brown University3.02-0.96vs Predicted
-
11University of New Hampshire1.81+1.84vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University3.15-3.35vs Predicted
-
13Connecticut College3.71-6.16vs Predicted
-
14Dartmouth College4.05-8.29vs Predicted
-
16Yale University3.10-7.09vs Predicted
-
17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-1.62vs Predicted
-
18Wesleyan University-0.21-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.46Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
-
7.81University of Vermont3.370.1%1st Place
-
3.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
-
9.99Tufts University2.760.0%1st Place
-
11.19University of Connecticut2.360.0%1st Place
-
7.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
-
8.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
-
7.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
-
8.31Salve Regina University3.310.0%1st Place
-
9.04Brown University3.020.0%1st Place
-
12.84University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
-
8.65Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
-
6.84Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
-
5.71Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
-
8.91Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
-
15.38Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
-
16.27Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Williams | 12.6% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pete Hazelett | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 20.4% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Simeone | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 1.5% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ian Oviatt | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schon | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Claflin | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Neal Drake | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 28.6% | 16.4% | 4.1% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Nate Olsen | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 12.1% | 43.3% | 28.9% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 22.8% | 64.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.