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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.81+10.20vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands2.77+4.99vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+2.14vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University2.22+5.19vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+7.11vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego2.19+3.33vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands2.77-0.01vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.64-0.77vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley2.12+0.86vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.04-4.11vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University1.51+1.55vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California2.57-4.01vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine2.79-6.08vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay1.64-1.86vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University0.44+2.09vs Predicted
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17California Poly Maritime Academy0.62-0.12vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz1.41-4.86vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles0.83-3.11vs Predicted
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20California State University Monterey Bay0.41-2.30vs Predicted
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21California Poly Maritime Academy0.81-5.43vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley0.79-6.04vs Predicted
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23University of California at Davis-0.08-3.84vs Predicted
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24University of California at San Diego1.60-11.65vs Predicted
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25University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-9.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.2Brown University1.810.0%1st Place
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6.99California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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5.14University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.1%1st Place
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9.19Santa Clara University2.220.1%1st Place
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12.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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9.33University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
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6.99California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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7.23University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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9.86University of California at Berkeley2.120.1%1st Place
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5.89Stanford University3.040.1%1st Place
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12.55Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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7.99University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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6.92University of California at Irvine2.790.1%1st Place
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12.14California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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17.09Arizona State University0.440.0%1st Place
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16.88California Poly Maritime Academy0.620.0%1st Place
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13.14University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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15.89University of California at Los Angeles0.830.0%1st Place
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17.7California State University Monterey Bay0.410.0%1st Place
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15.57California Poly Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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15.96University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
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19.16University of California at Davis-0.080.0%1st Place
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12.35University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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15.74University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bailey | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 14.1% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Travis Benton | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Dahl | 12.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kincaid | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hodges | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| William Antrobus | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Nora Brackbill | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Shane | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| Riley Silberman | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Karisa Chapa | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.