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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+3.73vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands2.77+4.27vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.27vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.04+1.40vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University1.51+6.29vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego2.19+2.46vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine2.79-0.70vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz1.41+4.08vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University2.22-0.87vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.64-3.33vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay1.64-0.26vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California2.57-4.93vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.41+2.68vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.81-3.67vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University0.44+0.36vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-5.29vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles0.83-3.03vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy0.81-4.09vs Predicted
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19California Poly Maritime Academy0.62-4.16vs Predicted
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21University of California at Berkeley0.79-6.94vs Predicted
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22University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-8.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.2%1st Place
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6.27California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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6.27California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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5.4Stanford University3.040.1%1st Place
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11.29Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
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8.46University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
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6.3University of California at Irvine2.790.1%1st Place
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12.08University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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8.13Santa Clara University2.220.1%1st Place
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6.67University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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10.74California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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7.07University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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15.68California State University Monterey Bay0.410.0%1st Place
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10.33Brown University1.810.0%1st Place
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15.36Arizona State University0.440.0%1st Place
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10.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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13.97University of California at Los Angeles0.830.0%1st Place
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13.91California Poly Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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14.84California Poly Maritime Academy0.620.0%1st Place
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14.06University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
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13.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sullivan | 16.6% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Dahl | 13.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kincaid | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 7.6% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Shane | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 16.2% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hodges | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 20.3% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Nora Brackbill | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Riley Silberman | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| William Antrobus | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.