← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy2.25+7.42vs Predicted
-
2University of California at San Diego2.19+6.72vs Predicted
-
3California State University Channel Islands2.77+3.50vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California2.57+3.16vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California2.64+1.85vs Predicted
-
6California State University Channel Islands2.77+0.50vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-2.20vs Predicted
-
8Stanford University3.04-2.45vs Predicted
-
9California State University Monterey Bay1.64+1.79vs Predicted
-
10Santa Clara University2.22-1.56vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Cruz1.41+0.99vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Irvine2.17-3.20vs Predicted
-
13Brown University1.81-2.53vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Los Angeles0.83+0.58vs Predicted
-
15California State University Monterey Bay0.41+0.75vs Predicted
-
16California Poly Maritime Academy0.81-1.74vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Berkeley0.79-2.62vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.97vs Predicted
-
19Arizona State University0.44-3.22vs Predicted
-
20Arizona State University1.51-8.45vs Predicted
-
21Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-9.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.42California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.1%1st Place
-
8.72University of California at San Diego2.190.1%1st Place
-
6.5California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
-
7.16University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
-
6.85University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
-
6.5California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
-
4.8University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.2%1st Place
-
5.55Stanford University3.040.1%1st Place
-
10.79California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
-
8.44Santa Clara University2.220.0%1st Place
-
11.99University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
-
8.8University of California at Irvine2.170.1%1st Place
-
10.47Brown University1.810.0%1st Place
-
14.58University of California at Los Angeles0.830.0%1st Place
-
15.75California State University Monterey Bay0.410.0%1st Place
-
14.26California Poly Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
-
14.38University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
-
14.03University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
-
15.78Arizona State University0.440.0%1st Place
-
11.55Arizona State University1.510.0%1st Place
-
11.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Alamillo | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 15.2% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Dahl | 11.1% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Wood | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nora Brackbill | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Charles Shane | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 23.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Silberman | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hodges | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Spenser Branch | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.