← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College3.62+3.20vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College3.11+3.62vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University2.92+3.40vs Predicted
-
4Brown University2.40+4.23vs Predicted
-
5Salve Regina University3.06+0.76vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University2.61+1.61vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+0.55vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont3.11-2.33vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+0.79vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-0.19vs Predicted
-
11University of New Hampshire1.04+1.77vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College2.25-3.31vs Predicted
-
15University of Connecticut1.53-3.68vs Predicted
-
16Yale University1.64-5.01vs Predicted
-
17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-4.09vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08-8.60vs Predicted
-
20Wesleyan University-0.83-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.2Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
-
5.62Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
-
6.4Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
-
8.23Brown University2.400.1%1st Place
-
5.76Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
-
7.61Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
-
7.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
5.67University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
-
9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
-
9.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
-
12.77University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
-
8.69Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
-
11.32University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
-
10.99Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
-
12.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
-
9.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
-
16.28Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Roesler | 19.2% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 10.9% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Haley Powell | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Brent Lunghino | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Eric Decesar | 10.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| William Cotta | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Chronert | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 0.7% |
| Ann Sager | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 16.4% | 25.9% | 6.6% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 4.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 1.6% |
| Robert Pierce | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 25.2% | 8.4% |
| Chris Grabe | 3.5% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 77.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.