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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.69+5.12vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.14+5.47vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+8.17vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.22+2.53vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.95+4.33vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.39vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University-1.38-1.11vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.91vs Predicted
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9Florida State University0.77-0.32vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.13+2.41vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.93-2.18vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-5.06vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.13-3.62vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University0.62-4.15vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island0.99-6.96vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.20-3.97vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.70-6.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.12Brown University1.6911.8%1st Place
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7.47Boston University1.146.7%1st Place
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11.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.6%1st Place
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6.53Northeastern University1.229.9%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University0.955.1%1st Place
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9.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.2%1st Place
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5.89Jacksonville University-1.3810.9%1st Place
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10.91Christopher Newport University-0.842.9%1st Place
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8.68Florida State University0.775.9%1st Place
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12.41University of Vermont-0.131.9%1st Place
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8.82George Washington University0.934.9%1st Place
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6.94St. Mary's College of Maryland1.768.1%1st Place
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9.38Fordham University1.134.5%1st Place
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9.85Roger Williams University0.624.7%1st Place
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8.04University of Rhode Island0.997.0%1st Place
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12.03Washington College0.202.6%1st Place
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10.03University of Wisconsin0.704.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine McNamara | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
| Eva Ermlich | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Emily Allen | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.4% |
| Katie Nelson | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 24.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 19.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.