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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.69+5.11vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin0.70+7.96vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University-1.38+2.90vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+5.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+6.05vs Predicted
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6George Washington University0.93+2.74vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.14+0.60vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.22-1.62vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.13+0.37vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-3.05vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University0.62-1.05vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.95-2.50vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.14vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island0.99-6.21vs Predicted
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15Florida State University0.77-6.18vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-0.13-3.44vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.20-4.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.11Brown University1.6911.7%1st Place
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9.96University of Wisconsin0.704.5%1st Place
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5.9Jacksonville University-1.3811.9%1st Place
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9.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.8%1st Place
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11.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.6%1st Place
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8.74George Washington University0.936.2%1st Place
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7.6Boston University1.146.5%1st Place
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6.38Northeastern University1.2210.2%1st Place
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9.37Fordham University1.135.3%1st Place
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6.95St. Mary's College of Maryland1.768.4%1st Place
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9.95Roger Williams University0.623.7%1st Place
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9.5Old Dominion University0.954.5%1st Place
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10.86Christopher Newport University-0.842.5%1st Place
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7.79University of Rhode Island0.996.9%1st Place
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8.82Florida State University0.775.1%1st Place
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12.56University of Vermont-0.132.5%1st Place
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12.24Washington College0.202.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine McNamara | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% |
| Emily Allen | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 11.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% |
| Laura Smith | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Katie Nelson | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 24.2% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 21.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.