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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+8.60vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.69+4.15vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+3.90vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University0.62+5.84vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University-1.38+0.81vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University-0.84+4.87vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.99+0.70vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.14-0.36vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.23vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.22-3.51vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.70-0.83vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.93-3.18vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.13-3.81vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.95-4.63vs Predicted
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15Florida State University0.77-6.37vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-0.13-3.71vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.20-4.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.2%1st Place
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6.15Brown University1.6910.5%1st Place
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6.9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.768.6%1st Place
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9.84Roger Williams University0.624.2%1st Place
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5.81Jacksonville University-1.3811.9%1st Place
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10.87Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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7.7University of Rhode Island0.997.2%1st Place
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7.64Boston University1.147.3%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.4%1st Place
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6.49Northeastern University1.2210.4%1st Place
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10.17University of Wisconsin0.703.6%1st Place
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8.82George Washington University0.935.1%1st Place
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9.19Fordham University1.135.1%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University0.955.2%1st Place
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8.63Florida State University0.775.4%1st Place
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12.29University of Vermont-0.132.1%1st Place
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12.29Washington College0.202.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| Katherine McNamara | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 4.7% |
| Emily Allen | 11.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Mary Castellini | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Katie Nelson | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 21.9% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 22.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.