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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.62+3.19vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+5.41vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.61+4.48vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.92+2.48vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.11+0.62vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University3.06+0.01vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.11-1.22vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+1.47vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.64+2.05vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.40-2.92vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08-2.57vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.25-4.32vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-0.97vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire1.04-2.15vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-6.11vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut1.53-5.72vs Predicted
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20Wesleyan University-0.83-3.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
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7.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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7.48Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.48Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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5.62Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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6.01Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.78University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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11.05Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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8.08Brown University2.400.0%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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8.68Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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13.03Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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12.85University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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16.27Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Roesler | 20.1% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Cotta | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Haley Powell | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Decesar | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 2.2% |
| Brent Lunghino | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Chris Grabe | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Robert Pierce | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 24.7% | 9.5% |
| Ann Sager | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 25.2% | 7.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 0.5% |
| Colin Silveno | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 2.8% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 76.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.