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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.31+5.07vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.85+2.57vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.07+3.82vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.18+2.77vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.97+2.01vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University0.82+1.38vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+0.54vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.24+1.97vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.36-0.03vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.65-1.50vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-2.23vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.12-1.89vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.71-5.34vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.10vs Predicted
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15Florida State University-0.25-3.73vs Predicted
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16Boston University-1.31-1.84vs Predicted
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17Washington College-3.22-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.07Roger Williams University1.3111.0%1st Place
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4.57Brown University1.8517.2%1st Place
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6.82George Washington University1.077.8%1st Place
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6.77Northeastern University1.187.5%1st Place
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7.01Old Dominion University0.977.3%1st Place
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7.38Jacksonville University0.826.8%1st Place
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7.54St. Mary's College of Maryland0.838.6%1st Place
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9.97University of Vermont0.244.1%1st Place
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8.97University of Wisconsin0.363.9%1st Place
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8.5Christopher Newport University0.655.7%1st Place
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8.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.564.5%1st Place
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10.11University of Rhode Island0.122.9%1st Place
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7.66Fordham University0.716.8%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.7%1st Place
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11.27Florida State University-0.252.4%1st Place
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14.16Boston University-1.310.7%1st Place
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16.52Washington College-3.220.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavia Smith | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Laura Hamilton | 17.2% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Agija Elerte | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 6.0% | 0.4% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Brook Wood | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 0.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 1.4% |
| Lauren Connell | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 17.8% | 11.2% | 1.8% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 12.6% | 45.0% | 11.6% |
| Nora Beebe | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 8.6% | 83.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.