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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.96+3.60vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.44+1.44vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+2.79vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.68+0.33vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.46+5.30vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University2.29-0.55vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.03-0.85vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.16-4.85vs Predicted
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10University of Connecticut1.72-1.96vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire1.52-2.29vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.07-4.93vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.14-3.14vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island0.41-2.37vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University-0.21-2.33vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-1.00-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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3.44Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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5.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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5.33Northeastern University2.680.1%1st Place
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11.3Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.460.0%1st Place
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6.45Salve Regina University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.15University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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4.15Yale University3.160.2%1st Place
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8.04University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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8.71University of New Hampshire1.520.0%1st Place
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7.07Brown University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.86Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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11.63University of Rhode Island0.410.0%1st Place
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12.67Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
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13.8Sacred Heart University-1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bothwick | 14.2% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin MURPHY | 22.7% | 20.6% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Cefali | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Goodrich | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Markarian | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 20.7% | 17.7% | 7.6% |
| Christopher Jensen | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Duncan | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Urska Kosir | 16.3% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Will Humphrey | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Emmett Weeks | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Mende | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 17.7% | 12.8% | 6.9% | 1.2% |
| Luke Puk | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 15.6% | 21.1% | 18.7% | 10.8% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 29.6% | 22.5% |
| Torkel Knutson | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 20.0% | 56.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.