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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.11+4.61vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University3.06+3.76vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.61+4.42vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.11+0.78vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.40+2.00vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.92-0.45vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08+1.39vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.25-0.43vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91+0.15vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.64-0.17vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.04+0.78vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-0.05vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-6.38vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-5.25vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut1.53-5.72vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.83-1.76vs Predicted
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20Dartmouth College3.62-15.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.61University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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5.76Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.42Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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5.78Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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8.0Brown University2.400.1%1st Place
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6.55Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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8.57Connecticut College2.250.1%1st Place
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10.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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10.83Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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12.78University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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12.95Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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7.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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16.24Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
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4.33Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Chafee | 12.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Decesar | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brent Lunghino | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Haley Powell | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Chris Grabe | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Chronert | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Stevens | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 6.8% | 2.4% |
| Ann Sager | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 24.2% | 8.4% |
| Robert Pierce | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 25.7% | 7.6% |
| William Cotta | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 2.9% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 10.2% | 76.9% |
| Bernie Roesler | 17.6% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.