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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+4.80vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.03+4.10vs Predicted
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4University of Connecticut1.72+4.01vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.96-0.45vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.16-1.77vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.68-1.67vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University2.29-1.57vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.07-1.95vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.52-1.39vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.44-7.42vs Predicted
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12Wesleyan University-0.21+0.69vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.46-1.47vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College1.14-4.19vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island0.41-3.54vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-1.00-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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7.1University of Vermont2.030.0%1st Place
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8.01University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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4.55Connecticut College2.960.2%1st Place
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4.23Yale University3.160.2%1st Place
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5.33Northeastern University2.680.1%1st Place
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6.43Salve Regina University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.05Brown University2.070.1%1st Place
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8.61University of New Hampshire1.520.0%1st Place
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3.58Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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12.69Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
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11.53Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.460.0%1st Place
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9.81Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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11.46University of Rhode Island0.410.0%1st Place
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13.82Sacred Heart University-1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Cefali | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Duncan | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Presti | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 15.1% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Urska Kosir | 16.4% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Goodrich | 9.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Jensen | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Weeks | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Will Humphrey | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Colin MURPHY | 20.0% | 21.0% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 16.6% | 28.0% | 24.5% |
| Peter Markarian | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 21.1% | 19.4% | 7.5% |
| Benjamin Mende | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 17.7% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.0% |
| Luke Puk | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 20.2% | 20.6% | 7.0% |
| Torkel Knutson | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 17.8% | 57.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.