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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+4.04vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.44+0.57vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.16+0.29vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16+2.12vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.96-1.08vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University2.29-0.23vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut1.72+0.35vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.68-3.39vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.07-2.72vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.03-3.38vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.35-2.53vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.41-1.04vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College1.14-4.84vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-1.00-2.99vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-5.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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3.57Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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4.29Yale University3.160.2%1st Place
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7.12Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.1%1st Place
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4.92Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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6.77Salve Regina University2.290.1%1st Place
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8.35University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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5.61Northeastern University2.680.1%1st Place
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7.28Brown University2.070.0%1st Place
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7.62University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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9.47University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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11.96University of Rhode Island0.410.0%1st Place
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10.16Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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14.01Sacred Heart University-1.000.0%1st Place
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12.82Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Cefali | 9.4% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Colin MURPHY | 22.3% | 20.0% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Urska Kosir | 15.4% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Reney | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 12.3% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Jensen | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Scott Goodrich | 10.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Weeks | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| John Duncan | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| William Dykes | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 1.5% |
| Luke Puk | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 23.7% | 25.8% | 9.2% |
| Benjamin Mende | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 19.4% | 15.7% | 10.1% | 2.3% |
| Torkel Knutson | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 8.3% | 19.9% | 60.3% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 9.4% | 17.7% | 29.6% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.