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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+5.06vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.96+1.71vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.68+1.53vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16+2.08vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.44-2.25vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.03+0.51vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.16-3.71vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.07-1.62vs Predicted
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10University of Connecticut1.72-1.63vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire1.35-1.47vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University2.29-5.22vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.14-2.76vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island0.41-3.12vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-1.00-3.01vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-5.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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4.71Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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5.53Northeastern University2.680.1%1st Place
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7.08Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.1%1st Place
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3.75Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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7.51University of Vermont2.030.0%1st Place
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4.29Yale University3.160.2%1st Place
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7.38Brown University2.070.1%1st Place
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8.37University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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9.53University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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6.78Salve Regina University2.290.1%1st Place
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10.24Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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11.88University of Rhode Island0.410.0%1st Place
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13.99Sacred Heart University-1.000.0%1st Place
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12.89Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Cefali | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 12.9% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Goodrich | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Reney | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Colin MURPHY | 20.7% | 18.2% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Duncan | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Urska Kosir | 16.6% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Weeks | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| William Dykes | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Christopher Jensen | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mende | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 18.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% |
| Luke Puk | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 23.6% | 23.6% | 10.6% |
| Torkel Knutson | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 20.5% | 60.0% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 32.9% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.