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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2Connecticut College2.96+2.75vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.07+4.15vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+2.04vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.03+2.41vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.44-2.31vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College1.14+3.04vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University2.29-1.32vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.68-3.39vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island0.41+1.78vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.16-3.77vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.16-7.55vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut1.72-5.35vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire1.35-5.37vs Predicted
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17Sacred Heart University-1.00-2.99vs Predicted
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18Wesleyan University-0.21-5.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.75Connecticut College2.960.1%1st Place
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7.15Brown University2.070.1%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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7.41University of Vermont2.030.0%1st Place
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3.69Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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10.04Bowdoin College1.140.0%1st Place
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6.68Salve Regina University2.290.1%1st Place
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5.61Northeastern University2.680.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Rhode Island0.410.0%1st Place
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7.23Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.160.1%1st Place
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4.45Yale University3.160.2%1st Place
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8.65University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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9.63University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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14.01Sacred Heart University-1.000.0%1st Place
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12.88Wesleyan University-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bothwick | 13.5% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emmett Weeks | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Cefali | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Duncan | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin MURPHY | 21.5% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mende | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 16.3% | 9.2% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Jensen | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Scott Goodrich | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luke Puk | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 22.2% | 23.5% | 9.0% |
| Michael Reney | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Urska Kosir | 15.9% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| William Dykes | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 1.2% |
| Torkel Knutson | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 60.8% |
| Austen Fiora | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 32.8% | 26.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.