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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.62+3.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+5.40vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.11+2.66vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.61+3.47vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.40+2.95vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.11-0.10vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08+2.38vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95+4.74vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University3.06-2.95vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire1.04+2.77vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.92-4.49vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.25-3.29vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-3.23vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-3.93vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut1.53-3.75vs Predicted
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17Yale University1.64-5.99vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University-0.83-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
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7.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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5.66Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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7.47Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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7.95Brown University2.400.1%1st Place
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5.9University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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9.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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12.74Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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6.05Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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12.77University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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6.51Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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8.71Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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11.25University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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11.01Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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16.26Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Roesler | 21.4% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Cotta | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Brent Lunghino | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Quentin Chafee | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Chris Grabe | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Robert Pierce | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 15.8% | 24.5% | 8.5% |
| Eric Decesar | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ann Sager | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 22.2% | 7.2% |
| Haley Powell | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Chronert | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 5.4% | 1.0% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 2.6% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 11.4% | 75.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.