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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.62+3.05vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.11+3.52vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.11+2.59vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08+5.16vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.92+1.08vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.61+1.46vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+1.52vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-1.81vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.25-1.30vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-1.34vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.64-1.22vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.53-1.95vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University3.06-8.15vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-2.07vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire1.04-3.49vs Predicted
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18Brown University1.66-7.28vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University-0.83-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
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5.52University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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5.59Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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9.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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6.08Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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7.46Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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8.7Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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10.78Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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11.05University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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5.85Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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12.93Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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12.51University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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10.72Brown University1.660.0%1st Place
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16.23Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Roesler | 19.9% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 10.4% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Grabe | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Haley Powell | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| William Cotta | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Chronert | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Stevens | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 2.5% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% |
| Eric Decesar | 11.4% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Pierce | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 24.7% | 7.9% |
| Ann Sager | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| Jacob Tower | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 2.0% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 9.9% | 76.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.