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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.11+4.52vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.62+2.03vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.11+2.59vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire1.04+8.54vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University3.06+0.67vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.25+1.72vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.61-0.70vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.66+1.41vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-2.53vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.92-4.87vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08-2.72vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.53-1.93vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-4.40vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-5.10vs Predicted
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16Yale University1.64-5.31vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-4.13vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University-0.83-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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4.03Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
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5.59Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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12.54University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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5.67Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.72Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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7.3Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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10.41Brown University1.660.0%1st Place
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7.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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6.13Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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11.07University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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9.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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9.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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10.69Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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12.87Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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16.22Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Chafee | 11.4% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bernie Roesler | 19.1% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ann Sager | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 23.5% | 4.7% |
| Eric Decesar | 11.9% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tower | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 1.7% |
| William Cotta | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Haley Powell | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Chris Grabe | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 3.6% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Chronert | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Stevens | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 1.7% |
| Robert Pierce | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 23.7% | 8.2% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 76.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.