Race 1A

north-spring-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

7.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Nick Ventrilla 2.5% 5.0% 3.6% 5.9% 6.6% 8.2% 9.6% 10.8% 13.5% 13.2% 11.4% 9.7% 0.0%
John Croll 10.0% 11.8% 13.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.0% 9.5% 7.4% 5.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Stan Benarick 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 2.4% 3.5% 4.4% 4.6% 7.0% 7.1% 11.7% 19.4% 34.6% 0.0%
William McIvor 2.2% 3.4% 5.4% 6.2% 7.3% 8.0% 10.8% 12.7% 11.6% 12.6% 11.5% 8.3% 0.0%
James Codega 3.8% 5.4% 7.2% 8.9% 8.5% 10.2% 11.5% 10.5% 12.1% 10.1% 6.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Phillip Sellstrom 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 3.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.2% 6.5% 9.9% 12.3% 20.4% 28.8% 0.0%
Alexander Sachs 21.3% 23.3% 17.2% 15.2% 8.2% 7.4% 4.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Philip Alley 38.1% 23.3% 17.9% 11.0% 4.7% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Murphy 4.2% 6.8% 9.3% 10.1% 13.1% 10.9% 12.3% 12.5% 8.3% 7.7% 3.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Chantal Hearst 3.7% 4.4% 5.9% 6.6% 8.6% 9.7% 10.1% 10.5% 12.8% 12.1% 10.2% 5.4% 0.0%
Matthew Sullivan 7.6% 9.2% 10.9% 12.7% 13.0% 11.4% 11.5% 8.6% 6.6% 5.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Phillip Sellstrom 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 3.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.2% 6.5% 9.9% 12.3% 20.4% 28.8% 0.0%
Jeffrey Gordon 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 4.8% 8.7% 9.5% 10.1% 11.2% 11.3% 12.1% 14.0% 6.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.