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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.62+3.09vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.11+3.53vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.25+5.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+5.46vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.92+1.10vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.61+1.43vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+0.37vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.11-2.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08+0.30vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.64-0.40vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.04+0.56vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University3.06-7.23vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut1.53-2.85vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-2.08vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.66-5.43vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-7.19vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University-0.83-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
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5.53University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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8.6Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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6.1Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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7.43Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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7.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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5.49Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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9.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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10.6Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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12.56University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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5.77Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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11.15University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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12.92Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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10.57Brown University1.660.0%1st Place
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9.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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16.24Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Roesler | 19.8% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Haley Powell | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Cotta | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 12.4% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Grabe | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 1.5% |
| Ann Sager | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 16.8% | 22.0% | 7.1% |
| Eric Decesar | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 3.6% |
| Robert Pierce | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 16.7% | 25.4% | 7.4% |
| Jacob Tower | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 1.7% |
| Thomas Chronert | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 0.9% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 76.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.