Race 1B

north-spring-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Duncan Howes 28.0% 25.0% 16.9% 14.3% 7.8% 4.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
David Coplon 15.1% 16.8% 17.2% 13.1% 13.7% 9.2% 6.9% 5.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arielle Morgan 10.6% 10.7% 10.4% 12.7% 11.9% 13.2% 12.9% 10.0% 5.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 3.7% 5.6% 6.2% 9.0% 9.1% 11.3% 14.6% 15.3% 14.2% 8.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Chase Jackson 5.4% 6.8% 7.5% 9.3% 9.1% 11.3% 13.4% 14.2% 12.0% 8.0% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Jack Cartwright 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 4.2% 8.9% 17.8% 27.9% 30.2% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 3.7% 5.6% 6.2% 9.0% 9.1% 11.3% 14.6% 15.3% 14.2% 8.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Luke Miller 8.1% 8.9% 9.1% 10.4% 11.2% 12.5% 13.5% 12.4% 7.9% 4.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Douglas Zangre 10.0% 8.1% 9.9% 11.3% 12.5% 11.4% 13.0% 10.7% 8.2% 3.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
David Geer 2.4% 1.9% 3.0% 3.7% 6.6% 7.5% 9.5% 14.2% 21.1% 19.4% 9.1% 1.6% 0.0%
Alex Reynolds 14.5% 14.2% 16.8% 13.7% 12.9% 11.6% 7.0% 5.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gloria Mak 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.6% 2.2% 3.8% 6.4% 13.5% 27.2% 41.5% 0.0%
Patrick Stege 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 2.0% 3.3% 1.9% 3.9% 9.6% 22.1% 27.8% 25.7% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.