Race 4B

north-spring-qualifier

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Alex Reynolds 14.4% 14.1% 14.2% 15.7% 14.4% 11.3% 8.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
David Coplon 15.1% 17.3% 16.6% 14.5% 13.2% 9.3% 8.0% 3.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Arielle Morgan 11.0% 10.8% 11.0% 11.9% 13.3% 13.5% 13.1% 8.6% 5.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Duncan Howes 32.0% 24.2% 17.4% 10.7% 7.5% 5.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
David Geer 1.8% 3.4% 3.2% 5.0% 5.4% 7.0% 9.9% 13.9% 19.9% 17.1% 9.8% 3.6% 0.0%
Margaret McMullen 3.6% 3.7% 5.0% 5.7% 7.1% 9.0% 10.6% 16.6% 18.7% 12.6% 6.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Luke Miller 7.8% 8.9% 8.8% 11.6% 12.7% 12.1% 14.4% 11.2% 7.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 5.5% 6.7% 6.9% 9.1% 9.6% 11.1% 12.7% 15.8% 12.4% 7.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Douglas Zangre 6.7% 8.9% 14.6% 10.8% 12.0% 14.9% 13.0% 9.6% 6.2% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Cartwright 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.7% 4.3% 10.3% 19.1% 27.2% 27.3% 0.0%
Kathryn Luly 5.5% 6.7% 6.9% 9.1% 9.6% 11.1% 12.7% 15.8% 12.4% 7.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Patrick Stege 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 2.9% 2.6% 6.5% 8.9% 20.7% 26.8% 26.5% 0.0%
Gloria Mak 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 2.7% 4.5% 6.7% 14.3% 25.2% 40.8% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.