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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.62+3.07vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.11+3.49vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+6.49vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.66+6.55vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+2.21vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University3.06-0.13vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.25+1.56vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91+1.54vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08+0.30vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.11-5.41vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.64-1.17vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.92-6.72vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire1.04-1.34vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.61-7.58vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-3.23vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut1.53-5.89vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University-0.83-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.07Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
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5.49Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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9.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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10.55Brown University1.660.0%1st Place
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7.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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5.87Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.56Connecticut College2.250.1%1st Place
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9.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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9.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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5.59University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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10.83Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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6.28Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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12.66University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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7.42Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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12.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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16.26Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Roesler | 20.9% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bo McClatchy | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 0.3% |
| Jacob Tower | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 1.5% |
| William Cotta | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Eric Decesar | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Chronert | 4.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 0.2% |
| Chris Grabe | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Quentin Chafee | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 1.8% |
| Haley Powell | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ann Sager | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 21.0% | 7.8% |
| Will Pelleteri | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Robert Pierce | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 24.5% | 7.8% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 2.3% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 8.6% | 77.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.