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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.0%
Within 2 Positions
5.3
Avg Position Diff
25
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+7.65vs Predicted
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2University of Washington2.10+10.68vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38+8.22vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii3.68+1.41vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine2.17+7.05vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay1.64+9.04vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+1.98vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.57+2.22vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.23-2.28vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University2.20+2.03vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley2.60-0.91vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay1.64+3.04vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California2.64-3.19vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego1.60+1.46vs Predicted
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15Brown University1.81-1.09vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii3.04-8.03vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-2.03vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley1.01-0.33vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Cruz1.41-4.85vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-0.36-0.22vs Predicted
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23University of Washington2.79-14.14vs Predicted
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24University of Puget Sound1.26-7.03vs Predicted
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25Western Washington University0.99-7.06vs Predicted
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26Western Washington University1.88-12.38vs Predicted
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27California Poly Maritime Academy2.25-15.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.65University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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12.68University of Washington2.100.0%1st Place
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11.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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5.41University of Hawaii3.680.1%1st Place
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12.05University of California at Irvine2.170.0%1st Place
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15.04California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.1%1st Place
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10.22University of Southern California2.570.0%1st Place
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6.72Stanford University3.230.1%1st Place
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12.03Santa Clara University2.200.0%1st Place
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10.09University of California at Berkeley2.600.1%1st Place
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15.04California State University Monterey Bay1.640.0%1st Place
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9.81University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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15.46University of California at San Diego1.600.0%1st Place
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13.91Brown University1.810.0%1st Place
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7.97University of Hawaii3.040.1%1st Place
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14.97Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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17.67University of California at Berkeley1.010.0%1st Place
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16.15University of California at Santa Cruz1.410.0%1st Place
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21.78University of California at Davis-0.360.0%1st Place
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8.86University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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16.97University of Puget Sound1.260.0%1st Place
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17.94Western Washington University0.990.0%1st Place
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13.62Western Washington University1.880.0%1st Place
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11.78California Poly Maritime Academy2.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Kaschak | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Grimshaw | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Devon Rohde | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 13.7% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hoover | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Molly McKinney | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JOHN CONNOR BATHEN | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cody Shevitz | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Haney | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Olson | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Amery | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Pastalka | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Wilkerson | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 59.3% | 0.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Knape | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Reeves | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 17.0% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| Erika Vranizan | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Van Rensselaer | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.