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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University3.06+4.58vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.92+4.13vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.25+5.54vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+2.39vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.11-0.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91+2.93vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.61-0.74vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.08-0.02vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.64+0.85vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.62-6.89vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.11-6.25vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.66-2.40vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.95-1.09vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-5.39vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut1.53-4.99vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire1.04-4.36vs Predicted
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19Wesleyan University-0.83-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Salve Regina University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.13Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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8.54Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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5.46Dartmouth College3.110.1%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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7.26Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.080.0%1st Place
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10.85Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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4.11Dartmouth College3.620.2%1st Place
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5.75University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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10.6Brown University1.660.0%1st Place
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12.91Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.950.0%1st Place
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9.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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11.01University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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12.64University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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16.22Wesleyan University-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decesar | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Haley Powell | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 4.7% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| William Cotta | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Bo McClatchy | 11.5% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 0.8% |
| Will Pelleteri | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Chris Grabe | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 2.2% |
| Bernie Roesler | 18.6% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tower | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 2.1% |
| Robert Pierce | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 23.8% | 9.2% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Colin Silveno | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 2.2% |
| Ann Sager | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 21.2% | 7.0% |
| Gabriel Elder | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 9.6% | 75.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.