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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+8.96vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.90vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.39+9.18vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.44vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.49vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+2.39vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+1.17vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.92-0.91vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.90-2.05vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.73-0.63vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.85-3.70vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston2.49-4.07vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.78-2.27vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-3.43vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.12-1.93vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.38-8.05vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.54-4.19vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.12-8.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.0%1st Place
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7.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.5%1st Place
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12.18Boston University1.392.5%1st Place
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11.44SUNY Maritime College1.884.0%1st Place
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9.49University of Pennsylvania2.424.7%1st Place
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8.39Bowdoin College2.386.4%1st Place
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8.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.3%1st Place
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7.09Yale University2.929.3%1st Place
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6.95Dartmouth College2.909.1%1st Place
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9.37Webb Institute1.735.0%1st Place
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7.3Brown University2.858.8%1st Place
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7.93College of Charleston2.498.0%1st Place
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10.73North Carolina State University1.783.5%1st Place
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10.57University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.8%1st Place
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13.07University of Michigan1.122.1%1st Place
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7.95Cornell University2.387.4%1st Place
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12.81University of South Florida1.542.6%1st Place
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9.68Tufts University2.124.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 14.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Adam Larson | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 21.9% |
| Bridget Green | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 19.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.