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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.90+5.94vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+6.14vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+5.07vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.12+5.45vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.92+2.01vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+2.40vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+2.30vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.85-0.67vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.49-1.05vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.43vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.78-0.14vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.93vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.11vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.12-0.86vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.54-2.40vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-3.94vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.35vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-7.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.94Dartmouth College2.908.9%1st Place
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8.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.1%1st Place
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8.07Cornell University2.386.6%1st Place
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9.45Tufts University2.125.2%1st Place
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7.01Yale University2.929.3%1st Place
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8.4Bowdoin College2.386.8%1st Place
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9.3Webb Institute1.735.7%1st Place
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7.33Brown University2.857.8%1st Place
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7.95College of Charleston2.496.9%1st Place
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9.57University of Pennsylvania2.425.5%1st Place
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10.86North Carolina State University1.784.0%1st Place
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8.07St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.2%1st Place
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9.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.4%1st Place
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13.14University of Michigan1.121.9%1st Place
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12.6University of South Florida1.542.6%1st Place
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12.06Boston University1.392.5%1st Place
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11.65SUNY Maritime College1.883.3%1st Place
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10.57University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Bridget Green | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Adam Larson | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 22.6% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 19.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 13.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 12.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.