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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+7.63vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+5.03vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+6.56vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.88vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+3.07vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.85+1.37vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.12+2.55vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.50vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.49-0.97vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-0.38vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.90-4.20vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-3.70vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-2.47vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.73-4.82vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.12-1.73vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.54-3.21vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.78-6.13vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.39-6.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.63Bowdoin College2.386.5%1st Place
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7.03Yale University2.929.6%1st Place
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9.56University of Pennsylvania2.424.7%1st Place
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7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.4%1st Place
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8.07Cornell University2.386.2%1st Place
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7.37Brown University2.858.4%1st Place
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9.55Tufts University2.124.8%1st Place
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11.5SUNY Maritime College1.883.3%1st Place
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8.03College of Charleston2.497.0%1st Place
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9.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.5%1st Place
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6.8Dartmouth College2.9010.7%1st Place
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8.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.8%1st Place
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10.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.5%1st Place
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9.18Webb Institute1.736.2%1st Place
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13.27University of Michigan1.122.1%1st Place
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12.79University of South Florida1.541.9%1st Place
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10.87North Carolina State University1.783.1%1st Place
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12.0Boston University1.392.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Bridget Green | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 23.2% |
| Eden Nykamp | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 19.7% |
| Adam Larson | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.