← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.42+8.31vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College2.90+4.79vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+5.07vs Predicted
-
4Yale University2.92+2.97vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University2.38+2.95vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.74vs Predicted
-
7College of Charleston1.81+2.95vs Predicted
-
8University of Michigan1.12+5.17vs Predicted
-
9Brown University2.85-1.69vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.21vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.20vs Predicted
-
12University of South Florida1.54+0.70vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-2.59vs Predicted
-
14Bowdoin College2.38-5.75vs Predicted
-
15Webb Institute1.73-5.83vs Predicted
-
16North Carolina State University1.78-5.19vs Predicted
-
17Tufts University2.12-7.62vs Predicted
-
18Boston University1.39-5.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.31University of Pennsylvania2.425.7%1st Place
-
6.79Dartmouth College2.909.0%1st Place
-
8.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.1%1st Place
-
6.97Yale University2.929.4%1st Place
-
7.95Cornell University2.387.0%1st Place
-
9.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.7%1st Place
-
9.95College of Charleston1.814.8%1st Place
-
13.17University of Michigan1.121.9%1st Place
-
7.31Brown University2.857.9%1st Place
-
11.21SUNY Maritime College1.883.4%1st Place
-
7.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.4%1st Place
-
12.7University of South Florida1.542.8%1st Place
-
10.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.0%1st Place
-
8.25Bowdoin College2.386.7%1st Place
-
9.17Webb Institute1.735.2%1st Place
-
10.81North Carolina State University1.784.0%1st Place
-
9.38Tufts University2.124.8%1st Place
-
12.01Boston University1.393.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| Emma Tallman | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 22.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 18.6% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| Adam Larson | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.