← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bowdoin College2.38+7.44vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania2.42+7.26vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.38+4.80vs Predicted
-
4Yale University2.92+2.99vs Predicted
-
5Brown University2.85+2.27vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College2.90+0.82vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+1.02vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.19vs Predicted
-
9College of Charleston1.81+1.15vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+0.41vs Predicted
-
11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.37vs Predicted
-
12Tufts University2.12-2.33vs Predicted
-
13University of Michigan1.12+0.06vs Predicted
-
14North Carolina State University1.78-3.14vs Predicted
-
15University of South Florida1.54-2.41vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.53vs Predicted
-
17Webb Institute1.73-7.90vs Predicted
-
18Boston University1.39-6.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.44Bowdoin College2.387.0%1st Place
-
9.26University of Pennsylvania2.425.1%1st Place
-
7.8Cornell University2.387.5%1st Place
-
6.99Yale University2.928.3%1st Place
-
7.27Brown University2.859.2%1st Place
-
6.82Dartmouth College2.909.6%1st Place
-
8.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.3%1st Place
-
7.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.2%1st Place
-
10.15College of Charleston1.814.5%1st Place
-
10.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.6%1st Place
-
9.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.6%1st Place
-
9.67Tufts University2.124.9%1st Place
-
13.06University of Michigan1.121.6%1st Place
-
10.86North Carolina State University1.784.2%1st Place
-
12.59University of South Florida1.542.6%1st Place
-
11.47SUNY Maritime College1.882.9%1st Place
-
9.1Webb Institute1.735.4%1st Place
-
11.66Boston University1.393.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Bridget Green | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Emma Tallman | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% |
| Will Murray | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 22.1% |
| Adam Larson | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 18.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 9.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 12.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.