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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.42+8.38vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+4.82vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.73+6.28vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.85+3.38vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.12+4.29vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.78+4.77vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.81vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.54+4.71vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-1.34vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.92-3.03vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.12+2.16vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-1.65vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.74vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.26vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.38-6.56vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-7.89vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.39-5.12vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston1.81-8.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.38University of Pennsylvania2.426.0%1st Place
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6.82Dartmouth College2.9010.2%1st Place
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9.28Webb Institute1.736.0%1st Place
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7.38Brown University2.857.8%1st Place
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9.29Tufts University2.125.8%1st Place
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10.77North Carolina State University1.783.8%1st Place
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7.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.5%1st Place
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12.71University of South Florida1.542.2%1st Place
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7.66Cornell University2.387.4%1st Place
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6.97Yale University2.928.7%1st Place
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13.16University of Michigan1.122.3%1st Place
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10.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.5%1st Place
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11.26SUNY Maritime College1.882.9%1st Place
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9.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.8%1st Place
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8.44Bowdoin College2.386.5%1st Place
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8.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.6%1st Place
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11.88Boston University1.392.3%1st Place
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9.99College of Charleston1.815.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Adam Larson | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 19.1% |
| Bridget Green | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 23.3% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
| Will Murray | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% |
| Emma Tallman | 5.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.