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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+6.82vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+6.36vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+5.20vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.85+3.36vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+5.50vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.90+0.65vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.12+6.11vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.92-1.00vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.37vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.73vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.81-1.00vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-3.12vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.12-3.50vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.54-1.17vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-5.34vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-4.22vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-9.05vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.78-7.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Cornell University2.387.3%1st Place
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8.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.5%1st Place
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8.2Bowdoin College2.386.5%1st Place
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7.36Brown University2.859.3%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.1%1st Place
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6.65Dartmouth College2.909.8%1st Place
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13.11University of Michigan1.122.1%1st Place
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7.0Yale University2.929.7%1st Place
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11.37SUNY Maritime College1.882.6%1st Place
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9.27University of Pennsylvania2.424.2%1st Place
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10.0College of Charleston1.815.2%1st Place
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8.88Webb Institute1.736.5%1st Place
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9.5Tufts University2.125.3%1st Place
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12.83University of South Florida1.542.8%1st Place
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9.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.4%1st Place
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11.78Boston University1.393.4%1st Place
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7.95St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.6%1st Place
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10.77North Carolina State University1.783.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 22.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Emma Tallman | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 19.7% |
| Will Murray | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 12.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Adam Larson | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.