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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+6.33vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+6.51vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.92+4.14vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.90+2.93vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.79vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.27vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+2.21vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.03vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.12+4.48vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.78+0.95vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-1.60vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-3.67vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-5.32vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-3.66vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.39-3.01vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.49-8.19vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.90-3.44vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.12-8.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.33Brown University2.858.8%1st Place
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8.51Bowdoin College2.386.8%1st Place
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7.14Yale University2.929.3%1st Place
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6.93Dartmouth College2.909.2%1st Place
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9.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.3%1st Place
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11.27SUNY Maritime College1.883.1%1st Place
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9.21Webb Institute1.735.2%1st Place
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7.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.6%1st Place
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13.48University of Michigan1.122.0%1st Place
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10.95North Carolina State University1.783.2%1st Place
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9.4University of Pennsylvania2.425.7%1st Place
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8.33Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.9%1st Place
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7.68Cornell University2.387.4%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.7%1st Place
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11.99Boston University1.392.5%1st Place
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7.81College of Charleston2.497.5%1st Place
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13.56University of South Florida0.901.7%1st Place
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9.32Tufts University2.125.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 22.7% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Bridget Green | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 11.9% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 25.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.