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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+7.19vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+5.88vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.92+4.14vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.95vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.85vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.24vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+2.35vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.85-0.80vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.38-0.52vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.24vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.49-3.21vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.78-1.02vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.90-6.08vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.12-0.91vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.12-5.39vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-3.87vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.90-3.37vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-7.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.1%1st Place
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7.88Cornell University2.387.7%1st Place
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7.14Yale University2.929.4%1st Place
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9.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.2%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.5%1st Place
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9.24University of Pennsylvania2.425.1%1st Place
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9.35Webb Institute1.735.6%1st Place
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7.2Brown University2.858.0%1st Place
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8.48Bowdoin College2.386.6%1st Place
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11.24SUNY Maritime College1.883.4%1st Place
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7.79College of Charleston2.497.6%1st Place
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10.98North Carolina State University1.783.1%1st Place
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6.92Dartmouth College2.909.0%1st Place
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13.09University of Michigan1.121.7%1st Place
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9.61Tufts University2.125.6%1st Place
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12.13Boston University1.392.5%1st Place
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13.63University of South Florida0.901.8%1st Place
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10.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Bridget Green | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Adam Larson | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 20.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 13.2% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 27.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.