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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.92+6.14vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.49+5.79vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.90+3.94vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.91vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.12+4.64vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.39+5.95vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.47vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38+0.11vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.73+0.25vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.12+3.39vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.27vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.38-3.52vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-4.99vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.54-1.05vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.85-7.82vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-5.46vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.53vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.78-6.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.14Yale University2.929.0%1st Place
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7.79College of Charleston2.498.9%1st Place
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6.94Dartmouth College2.908.8%1st Place
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7.91St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.3%1st Place
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9.64Tufts University2.124.7%1st Place
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11.95Boston University1.393.2%1st Place
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9.47University of Pennsylvania2.425.7%1st Place
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8.11Cornell University2.387.7%1st Place
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9.25Webb Institute1.734.9%1st Place
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13.39University of Michigan1.121.2%1st Place
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9.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.7%1st Place
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8.48Bowdoin College2.385.6%1st Place
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8.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.6%1st Place
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12.95University of South Florida1.542.1%1st Place
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7.18Brown University2.858.2%1st Place
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10.54University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.0%1st Place
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11.47SUNY Maritime College1.883.2%1st Place
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11.05North Carolina State University1.782.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Nicolosi | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 12.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Bridget Green | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 23.4% |
| Will Murray | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 21.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.7% |
| Adam Larson | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.