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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.91+4.18vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.29+4.75vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.38+3.88vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+4.97vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43+4.83vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.03+3.31vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38-0.29vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.71+1.16vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-0.21vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.79-0.81vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-0.68vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.19-0.97vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.22-6.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-4.67vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-1.96vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.12-4.40vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.05-1.68vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.18Brown University2.9114.4%1st Place
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6.75Yale University2.299.4%1st Place
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6.88Dartmouth College2.388.7%1st Place
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8.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.5%1st Place
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9.83Webb Institute1.434.6%1st Place
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9.31Bowdoin College2.035.2%1st Place
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6.71College of Charleston2.388.6%1st Place
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9.16University of Pennsylvania1.714.7%1st Place
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8.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.5%1st Place
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9.19Cornell University1.795.7%1st Place
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10.32St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.4%1st Place
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11.03University of South Florida1.193.2%1st Place
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6.63Tufts University2.229.3%1st Place
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9.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.354.5%1st Place
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13.04Boston University1.072.2%1st Place
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11.6North Carolina State University1.122.6%1st Place
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15.32University of Michigan0.050.7%1st Place
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12.93SUNY Maritime College0.761.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.4% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| William Michels | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Maks Groom | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 4.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Reid | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Porter Bell | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 15.7% | 14.8% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 6.5% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 44.6% |
| John Vail | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 14.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.