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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.22+5.69vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.29+4.75vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.91+2.25vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.79+5.12vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+4.27vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.71+3.21vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.43+2.70vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.03+1.55vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.38-2.02vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.19+1.09vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.38-4.32vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-3.10vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.03vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.76-1.13vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-4.74vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.05-0.73vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.12-5.35vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.07-5.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.69Tufts University2.229.2%1st Place
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6.75Yale University2.299.3%1st Place
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5.25Brown University2.9114.6%1st Place
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9.12Cornell University1.794.8%1st Place
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9.27University of California at Santa Barbara1.355.2%1st Place
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9.21University of Pennsylvania1.714.7%1st Place
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9.7Webb Institute1.434.1%1st Place
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9.55Bowdoin College2.035.1%1st Place
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6.98Dartmouth College2.388.3%1st Place
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11.09University of South Florida1.193.5%1st Place
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6.68College of Charleston2.389.2%1st Place
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8.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.936.1%1st Place
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8.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.2%1st Place
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12.87SUNY Maritime College0.761.8%1st Place
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10.26St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.5%1st Place
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15.27University of Michigan0.050.9%1st Place
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11.65North Carolina State University1.122.5%1st Place
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12.8Boston University1.072.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.6% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Jasper Reid | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| William Michels | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 4.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| John Vail | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 14.5% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 45.3% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.