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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+5.75vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.29+4.90vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.22+3.81vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.91+1.22vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.03+4.51vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+2.97vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38-0.45vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.07+4.86vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+0.08vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.19+1.07vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.43-1.20vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-1.75vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.76-0.01vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.87vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.71-5.79vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.79-6.90vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.05-1.67vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.12-6.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.75Dartmouth College2.389.2%1st Place
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6.9Yale University2.298.6%1st Place
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6.81Tufts University2.229.6%1st Place
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5.22Brown University2.9112.7%1st Place
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9.51Bowdoin College2.035.0%1st Place
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8.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.9%1st Place
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6.55College of Charleston2.389.0%1st Place
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12.86Boston University1.071.4%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Santa Barbara1.354.5%1st Place
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11.07University of South Florida1.193.9%1st Place
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9.8Webb Institute1.434.4%1st Place
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10.25St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.3%1st Place
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12.99SUNY Maritime College0.761.9%1st Place
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9.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.8%1st Place
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9.21University of Pennsylvania1.715.5%1st Place
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9.1Cornell University1.796.2%1st Place
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15.33University of Michigan0.050.8%1st Place
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11.46North Carolina State University1.122.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.7% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Maks Groom | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 13.5% |
| Jasper Reid | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 4.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.5% |
| John Vail | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 44.6% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.