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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+5.94vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+3.14vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.43+6.86vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+5.24vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+5.46vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.03+3.65vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.60vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.38-1.36vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.29-2.08vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-0.86vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.79-1.81vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.07+1.10vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.71-3.79vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.19-2.96vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.50-1.66vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.84vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.12-5.33vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.22-11.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.94Dartmouth College2.388.8%1st Place
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5.14Brown University2.9113.4%1st Place
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9.86Webb Institute1.435.2%1st Place
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9.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.3%1st Place
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10.46St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.7%1st Place
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9.65Bowdoin College2.034.5%1st Place
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9.6University of California at Santa Barbara1.354.2%1st Place
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6.64College of Charleston2.3810.2%1st Place
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6.92Yale University2.299.3%1st Place
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9.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.0%1st Place
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9.19Cornell University1.794.6%1st Place
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13.1Boston University1.072.2%1st Place
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9.21University of Pennsylvania1.715.2%1st Place
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11.04University of South Florida1.193.4%1st Place
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13.34University of Michigan0.501.8%1st Place
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13.16SUNY Maritime College0.761.9%1st Place
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11.67North Carolina State University1.122.6%1st Place
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6.71Tufts University2.228.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.4% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Maks Groom | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Porter Bell | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 20.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 20.3% |
| John Vail | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 21.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.