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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.43+8.97vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.03+7.72vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+6.16vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.91+1.21vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.29+1.92vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+4.44vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.38-0.08vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.38-1.25vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-0.10vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.22-3.10vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.76+2.22vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan0.50+1.11vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.19-1.91vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-4.70vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.71-5.74vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.79-6.67vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.07-3.97vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.12-6.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.97Webb Institute1.433.8%1st Place
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9.72Bowdoin College2.034.8%1st Place
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9.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.4%1st Place
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5.21Brown University2.9114.4%1st Place
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6.92Yale University2.299.0%1st Place
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10.44St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.1%1st Place
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6.92Dartmouth College2.389.4%1st Place
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6.75College of Charleston2.389.7%1st Place
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8.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.776.0%1st Place
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6.9Tufts University2.229.2%1st Place
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13.22SUNY Maritime College0.761.6%1st Place
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13.11University of Michigan0.502.2%1st Place
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11.09University of South Florida1.192.9%1st Place
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9.3University of California at Santa Barbara1.354.2%1st Place
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9.26University of Pennsylvania1.714.5%1st Place
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9.33Cornell University1.794.0%1st Place
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13.03Boston University1.071.9%1st Place
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11.76North Carolina State University1.122.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne Donaldson | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Maks Groom | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| William Michels | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| John Vail | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 19.7% |
| Brody Schwartz | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 20.1% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Porter Bell | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 19.7% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.