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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.22+5.64vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+3.21vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+7.74vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.38+3.09vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.29+2.28vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.03+3.55vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38-0.13vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.07+5.16vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.19+2.42vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.12+1.75vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.79-1.88vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.65vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-3.28vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.16-6.50vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.76-1.54vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.43-5.99vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.50-3.87vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-9.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.64Tufts University2.2210.2%1st Place
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5.21Brown University2.9115.2%1st Place
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10.74St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.5%1st Place
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7.09Dartmouth College2.387.8%1st Place
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7.28Yale University2.297.3%1st Place
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9.55Bowdoin College2.035.2%1st Place
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6.87College of Charleston2.389.3%1st Place
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13.16Boston University1.071.8%1st Place
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11.42University of South Florida1.192.9%1st Place
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11.75North Carolina State University1.122.6%1st Place
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9.12Cornell University1.795.5%1st Place
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9.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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9.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.353.5%1st Place
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7.5University of Pennsylvania2.167.8%1st Place
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13.46SUNY Maritime College0.761.2%1st Place
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10.01Webb Institute1.434.1%1st Place
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13.13University of Michigan0.501.9%1st Place
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9.0Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 15.2% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% |
| William Michels | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Jasper Reid | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| John Vail | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 20.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 20.2% |
| Maks Groom | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.