Race 5A

central-series-3

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Martin McDonald 6.4% 5.4% 8.4% 8.8% 9.9% 7.2% 9.8% 9.5% 8.9% 8.1% 8.5% 6.2% 2.9%
Vincent Marchetto 5.3% 7.1% 7.5% 8.1% 8.5% 8.7% 9.6% 9.4% 8.3% 9.1% 7.1% 7.6% 3.7%
Peter Pellegrini 27.7% 20.5% 17.6% 13.1% 7.8% 5.3% 3.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Brian Gracey 2.7% 2.3% 4.0% 5.4% 4.6% 7.6% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 12.0% 10.8% 13.9% 17.0%
Sarah Fiske 6.0% 7.8% 7.3% 9.5% 8.4% 10.2% 6.0% 9.9% 9.7% 8.9% 7.1% 5.6% 3.6%
Tevis Nichols 5.6% 5.9% 6.3% 8.1% 8.7% 8.6% 8.4% 8.4% 10.8% 8.9% 8.0% 7.8% 4.5%
Willem Sandberg 19.1% 18.7% 15.6% 11.7% 10.8% 7.5% 6.8% 3.9% 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Samuel Cushing 7.6% 9.9% 10.7% 8.5% 9.1% 11.5% 9.5% 10.7% 7.5% 6.5% 4.5% 2.5% 1.5%
Alejandro Bancalari 4.7% 5.5% 4.6% 5.7% 6.3% 8.2% 8.4% 8.8% 9.7% 10.2% 8.5% 10.7% 8.7%
Bradley Abbott 5.6% 6.5% 5.7% 7.1% 8.1% 8.4% 9.6% 8.8% 8.4% 9.0% 8.2% 8.0% 6.6%
Zachary Drach 2.0% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% 5.1% 5.7% 5.7% 6.6% 8.2% 9.3% 13.0% 13.8% 20.8%
Solomon Krevans 4.9% 4.6% 6.4% 7.4% 7.9% 6.1% 9.2% 8.4% 9.7% 8.7% 11.2% 9.4% 6.1%
Ansel Duff 2.4% 2.6% 3.1% 2.8% 4.8% 5.0% 6.5% 6.8% 7.8% 7.8% 11.9% 14.1% 24.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.