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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.29+6.23vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+7.07vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.38+4.02vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22+2.84vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.91+0.39vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.29vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.39-0.23vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.75vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-0.67vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.50+3.25vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-1.98vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.07+1.20vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.12-1.09vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.16-6.31vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-4.52vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.41-1.70vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.19-5.52vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.43-8.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.23Yale University2.298.0%1st Place
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9.07Cornell University1.796.2%1st Place
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7.02College of Charleston2.388.6%1st Place
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6.84Tufts University2.228.9%1st Place
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5.39Brown University2.9113.2%1st Place
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9.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.2%1st Place
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6.77Dartmouth College2.399.7%1st Place
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9.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.354.0%1st Place
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8.33Bowdoin College2.066.2%1st Place
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13.25University of Michigan0.501.5%1st Place
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9.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.1%1st Place
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13.2Boston University1.072.4%1st Place
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11.91North Carolina State University1.122.2%1st Place
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7.69University of Pennsylvania2.168.0%1st Place
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10.48St. Mary's College of Maryland1.762.9%1st Place
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14.3SUNY Maritime College0.410.9%1st Place
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11.48University of South Florida1.193.2%1st Place
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9.99Webb Institute1.433.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.2% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Reid | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| Maks Groom | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Porter Bell | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% |
| Jackson McAliley | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Madison Bashaw | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Ben Hosford | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 32.8% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.