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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.91+4.40vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.29+5.16vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.38+3.89vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.79+5.44vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.22+1.92vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+2.13vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.16+0.65vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+1.19vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.07+4.08vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.19+1.25vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.70vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-2.37vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.50+0.22vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.39-7.14vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-4.45vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.12-3.97vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.43-6.94vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Brown University2.9114.3%1st Place
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7.16Yale University2.298.4%1st Place
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6.89College of Charleston2.389.4%1st Place
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9.44Cornell University1.795.0%1st Place
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6.92Tufts University2.227.8%1st Place
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8.13Bowdoin College2.067.2%1st Place
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7.65University of Pennsylvania2.167.4%1st Place
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9.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.4%1st Place
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13.08Boston University1.072.0%1st Place
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11.25University of South Florida1.193.0%1st Place
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9.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.5%1st Place
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9.63University of California at Santa Barbara1.354.5%1st Place
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13.22University of Michigan0.501.8%1st Place
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6.86Dartmouth College2.398.9%1st Place
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10.55St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.8%1st Place
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12.03North Carolina State University1.121.8%1st Place
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10.06Webb Institute1.434.1%1st Place
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14.24SUNY Maritime College0.411.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.3% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Maks Groom | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Jasper Reid | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 19.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Benjamin Usher | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 8.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 32.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.