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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.91+4.44vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+7.19vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+6.38vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.43+6.13vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.38+2.00vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.79+3.29vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.06+1.31vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.39-1.16vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.29-1.74vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.19+1.66vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.22-4.21vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.16-4.19vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.50+0.16vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-4.33vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-1.95vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-5.27vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.73vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.12-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Brown University2.9115.0%1st Place
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9.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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9.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.7%1st Place
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10.13Webb Institute1.433.6%1st Place
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7.0College of Charleston2.387.1%1st Place
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9.29Cornell University1.794.9%1st Place
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8.31Bowdoin College2.066.3%1st Place
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6.84Dartmouth College2.399.7%1st Place
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7.26Yale University2.298.1%1st Place
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11.66University of South Florida1.192.5%1st Place
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6.79Tufts University2.229.3%1st Place
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7.81University of Pennsylvania2.167.2%1st Place
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13.16University of Michigan0.502.4%1st Place
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9.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.354.4%1st Place
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13.05Boston University1.072.5%1st Place
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10.73St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.5%1st Place
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13.27SUNY Maritime College0.761.2%1st Place
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12.03North Carolina State University1.122.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 15.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Maks Groom | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.1% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 19.5% |
| Jasper Reid | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 20.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% |
| John Vail | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 21.1% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.